The March 10 USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates report did not include any significant changes from other recent WASDE reports.
The 2025-26 ending stocks in the March WASDE report for corn, soybeans, and wheat remained the same as the estimates a month earlier. The 2025-26 projected corn carryout level is considerably higher than the final ending stocks for 2024-25. The expected 2025-26 market year average prices for corn and wheat are expected to be lower than a year earlier, while the projected soybean price for the current marketing year is expected to increase slightly compared to the final 2024-25 market year average price. All eyes will now be on the USDA 2026 Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports that will be released on March 31, as well as early-season crop growing conditions in the Midwest.
The latest WASDE report estimates the 2025-2026 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels, which would be an increase 37% from a year earlier. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks compare to a carry-out levels of 1.55 billion bushels in 2024-25, 1.76 billion bushels in 2023-24, 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is estimated at 12.9%, which compares to ratios of 10.2% in 2024-25, 11.8% in 2023-24, 9.9% in 2022-23 and 9.2% in 2021-22. The current stocks-to-use ratio is still below the high corn stocks-to-use ratios of 14.6% for 2018-19, and 14.5% in 2017-18. The rather high projected carryout level could limit potential for significant rallies in the cash corn market in the coming months, especially if there is favorable weather conditions for the 2026 growing season.
USDA is currently estimating the U.S market year average corn price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $4.10 per bushel, which is the same as the February estimate. The projected 2025-26 average corn price compares to recent national average prices of $4.24 per bushel in 2024-25, $4.55 per bushel in 2023-24, $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6 per bushel for 2021-22, and $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21. The 2025-2026 MYA price estimate for corn and soybeans is the expected average farm-level price from Sept. 1, 2025, through Aug. 31, 2026; however, this does not represent the average price for either the 2025 or the 2026 calendar year.
Soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year in the latest WASDE report are estimated at 350 million bushels. The projected 2025-26 soybean carryout level compares to recent ending stocks of 325 million bushels in 2024-25, 342 million bushels in 2023-24, 264 million bushels in 2022-23, and 274 million bushels for 2021-22, and 257 million bushels in 2020-21. The projected soybean ending stocks for the current year would be the highest in the past five years, but would still be considerably lower than the high carryout level of 913 million bushels in 2018-19, which existed during the last U.S. trade war with China.
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is now estimated at 8.2%, which compares to ratios of 7.3% in 2024-25, 8.3% in 2023-24, and 6.1% in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. The projected 2025-26 ratio is still well below the very high soybean stocks-to-use ratios of 23% for 2018-19 and 13.3% for 2019-20. The lowest soybean stocks-to-use level in recent times was 2.6% in 2013. There has been some improvement in soybean prices in recent weeks; however, future price enhancements will likely be dependent on South American soybean production levels, along with prospects for the 2026 growing season in the U.S.
USDA is projecting the U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2025-2026 marketing year at $10.20 per bushel. The estimated 2025-26 market year average soybean price is only slightly above the final MYA price of $10 per bushel in 2024-25, which was the lowest average price since the 2020-21 marketing year. The 2025-26 price estimate compares to other recent yearly average soybean prices of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24, $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and the very low MYA price of $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20.
The March 10 WASDE report estimated the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 at 931 million bushels, which is an increase of 33.7% in the past two years. The projected 2025-26 wheat carryout level compares to 855 million bushels in 2024-25, 696 million bushels in 2023-24, 570 million bushels in 2022-23, and 674 million bushels in 2021-22. The 2025-26 farm-level average wheat price is projected at $4.95 per bushel, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel from the February estimated price. The 2025-26 wheat price estimate compares to other recent average price levels of $5.52 per bushel in 2024-25, $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24, $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22, and $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21. The 2025-26 MYA price for wheat and other small grains is the average farm-level price in the U.S. from June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026.
For the 2025 crop year only, eligible producers will get the higher of any potential PLC or ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other program crops, with payments to be paid in October 2026. For the 2026 crop year, crop producers will again need to choose between the PLC or ARC-CO farm program options, with any potential payments paid in October 2027. USDA has not announced the sign-up dates for the 2026 farm program at local FSA offices. For information on benchmark yields, prices and revenues, and other farm program information, producers should access the USDA ARC-PLC website at:
.
The following is a brief summary of potential 2025 PLC and ARC-CO payments:
Corn: The 2025 PLC corn reference price is $4.42 per bushel, and the 2025 benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $5.03 per bushel. Based on the March 2026 WASDE report, the estimated 2025 market year average corn price is $4.10 per bushel. This is $.32 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 corn PLC payments and is $.93 below the 2025 benchmark price. At the current 2025 MYA price, potential 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average corn yield that is about 5-10% above the 2025 county benchmark yield. At a final MYA price of $4.10 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be $35 to $45 per corn base acre, depending on the farm program yield.
Soybeans: The 2025 PLC soybean reference price is $10.71 per bushel, and the 2025 soybean benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $12.17 per bushel. Based on the March 2026 WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA soybean price is $10.20 per bushel. This is $.51 per bushel below the threshold for 2025 PLC payments and is $1.97 below the 2025 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a final 2025 county average soybean yield that is about 5-10% above the 2025 county benchmark yield. At a final MYA price of $10.20 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be $15 to $25 per soybean base acre.
Wheat: The 2025 PLC wheat reference price is $6.35 per bushel, and the 2025 wheat benchmark price for ARC-CO payments is $6.98 per bushel. Based on the March 2026 WASDE report, the estimated 2025 MYA wheat price is $4.95 per bushel. This is $1.40 per bushel under the threshold for 2025 wheat PLC payments and is $2.03 below the 2025 benchmark price. At the current MYA price estimate, the 2025 ARC-CO payments would be initiated with a 2025 county wheat yield that is about 25-30% above the 2025 county benchmark yield. At a final MYA price of $4.95 per bushel, the estimated PLC payment would be $40 to $60 per base acre.
Kent Thiesse is a Farm Management Analyst. Contact him by phone at (507) 381-7960 or by email at kentthiesse@gmail.com.
