The July corn futures contract could symbolize the Last Chance Saloon for farmers hoping to price remaining old-crop grain from fall’s harvest at stronger prices.
If that’s the case, it’s a good idea to be ready in case “last call” happens earlier than you may anticipate.
Over the past decade, it wasn’t uncommon for July futures to generate late-winter or spring rallies, such as in 2017 and 2019. In 2024 and 2025, highs came earlier.
Last year, July futures peaked at $5.21 per bushel in February before declining to $4.13 at expiration. The average peak-to-expiry decline for those two years was about 92 cents, or 18%.
It’s worth comparing those years to 2026 because both summers of 2024 and 2025 followed historically large harvests near or above 15 billion bushels. Both marketing years also featured relatively comfortable stocks relative to demand, with stocks-to-use ratios above 10%.
So far this year, futures have bounced back from unexpectedly bearish USDA data in January and climbed much of the winter, with July corn topping $4.60 in early March after bottoming around $4.34.
Is the rally sustainable into spring? It’s possible, given strong demand and the Middle East conflict that sent crude oil prices soaring.
But it’s also important to remember we’re still carrying the weight of last year’s 17 billion-bushel harvest. That may make it difficult to extend rallies, barring an early drought scare. In terms of marketing crops, be ready to “belly up” before it’s too late.
