Commodity

What is a commodity supercycle and are we in one right now?

Commodities are generally having a good run, according to an October 2021 report by the World Bank: metal prices rose 48% over the course of 2021; natural gas and coal prices reached record highs, with the former rising by 69% in Q3 and the latter by 44%; and agricultural products saw a 22% rise over the same period. 

The price surge was driven by the post-pandemic recovery and growing demand for green infrastructure, although the report also highlights the impact of increasing urbanisation on commodity demand.

But is talk of a new commodity ‘supercycle’ overblown? Here we look more closely at what a commodities supercycle is, what lies ahead for commodity prices and what this means for investors. 

COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE EXPLAINED

What is a commodity supercycle?

Commodity prices can be volatile. But what do analysts mean when they talk about a commodity supercycle, and how can we tell a supercycle from more run-of-the-mill price movements? 

Commodity supercycles are generally defined as extended periods of boom and bust in the commodities markets, with prices falling significantly above or below their long-term trends. These movements may even outlast the business cycle, and typically persist for well over a decade. 

John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), explained that commodity supercycles are defined both by their duration and the breadth of the assets they cover. 

As LaForge said in a note: “Commodities generally do not act like other major asset classes, like stocks or bonds. Commodities typically move together, like a big family, through long boom (bull markets) and bust (bear markets) cycles. Because each cycle typically lasts between 15 and 20 years, we call them ‘supercycles’.” 

Historical supercycles 

Research from the Bank of Canada identified four bull supercycles in commodity markets since the 1900s, each of which saw the Commodity Price Index deviate by at least 10% from its long-term trend. If we look back at these, this could shed some light on what causes commodity supercycles.

The Bank of Canada research found that although each supercycle was caused by a unique combination of factors, a common driver was the interaction of large, unexpected demand shocks and slow-moving supply responses. 

Four commodity supercycles since early 1900s

According to the paper, the first supercycle coincided with the industrialisation of the US in the early 1900s; the second, with pre-Second World War rearmament; and the third, with the reindustrialisation of Europe and Japan in the post-war period. 

The research explained that the last-recorded commodity price supercycle was driven by a series of important reforms (including accession to the World Trade Organisation [WTO] in 2001) that supercharged Chinese economic growth. 

What’s driving the current supercycle?

While the above covers supercycles from a historical perspective, many analysts argue that we are at the beginning of a new commodity supercycle with metals, gas, coal and agricultural product prices soaring over the course of 2021. 

But what factors are driving the current supercycle, and how far are we from its peak? 

According to analysts who spoke to Capital.com, two key factors appear to be driving the current supercycle: global recovery and the modernising of infrastructure.      

Global recovery

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, explained that the post-pandemic recovery has contributed to growing prices, especially in the energy sector. 

“There has been a cyclical upswing in the price of some commodities as the global economy has recovered from the depths of the pandemic, with sky-high energy prices making the headlines,” Khalaf told Capital.com. 

Modernising infrastructure

The economic reawakening is also compounded by governments investing heavily in green infrastructure, which has a direct impact on commodity prices.

“Looking forward, there may be reasons beyond an economic upswing that prompt higher commodity prices – notably, government spending in infrastructure and the shift to green forms of energy and transport,” said Khalaf. 

Jessica Noviskis, senior research analyst for Marquette Associates, explained this further: “[The] build-out of new low-carbon infrastructure including solar panels, wind turbines, as well as electric vehicles and batteries, would specifically boost demand for metals like copper, aluminium, lithium, cobalt and nickel, though to the detriment of the fossil industry.

Overall, it looks likely that several forces are combining to drive the current commodity surge. As LaForge said: “China, infrastructure spending and the global green-energy transition are candidates that may drive demand over the next bull super cycle.” 

“China, infrastructure spending and the global green-energy transition are candidates that may drive demand over the next bull supercycle.” — John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at the Wells Fargo

Hot commodities 

Which commodities could be well placed to benefit from the next supercycle? Evidence suggests that commodity prices tend to move together. According to LaForge: “Supercycles are like black holes. Escaping the gravity of a supercycle is difficult for the individual commodity.”

But with demand for green infrastructure set to drive the next supercycle, Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, expects demand for certain ‘green metals’ like copper, nickel, aluminium and platinum to soar. 

Years of low investment also means that supply of some metals is too low to meet demand – putting further upward pressure on prices. 

“Of the more than 200 big copper deposits to have been found in the past three decades, only a handful have come in the past 10 years…It takes years to develop a copper mine and in recent years, shareholders have encouraged the payment of dividends over preparing for a future boom,” Stevenson said.

Yet markets for metals continue to experience asymmetric impacts from market news.

“It hasn’t been plain sailing for all commodities though, as concerns over the Chinese property sector sank iron-ore prices following the Evergrande crisis,” said Khalaf. 

Monthly commodity price indices 

Will we see a supercycle at all?

But is all this talk of a supercycle premature? As supercycles typically last for 15–20 years, it can be difficult initially to distinguish between the start of a new commodity price supercycle and more ordinary short-term price fluctuations. It remains to be seen whether commodity prices will hold consistently above long-term averages.

Some analysts have also expressed uncertainty about whether global post-Covid business reopening and green investments are strong-enough forces to drive another supercycle. Can the post-pandemic period really match the strength of 1960s post-war recovery or China’s industrialisation?

Research from Marquette Associates suggests that today’s drivers may not be strong enough. Commodity imports into China spiked in 2020, and Noviskis cautions that a new supercycle would require sustained demand. However, the data from China already looks to be reversing, as seen in the chart below. 

Commodity imports into China, 2006–2020

How can investors profit from the commodity supercycle? 

If analysts’ predictions of an energy supercycle are borne out, we could be headed for an extended period of increased commodity prices. What does this mean for investors?

According to Fidelity’s Stevenson, the simplest and cheapest way to invest is via a commodities-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF), which offers a broad-based exposure to metals and energy.  

Investors also have the option of buying specific commodity-related shares, for example in mining and oil companies. Stevenson explained that relatively fixed costs mean that miners’ and oil companies’ earnings could rise more quickly than the price of their underlying resources, which means the shares will have the potential to deliver a high-dividend income.

Tread carefully

Despite the generally positive predictions from analysts, Khalaf urged a note of caution: “Commodity prices can be expected to continue to be volatile, though, so investors need to measure their exposure carefully.”

Wells Fargo research conducted by LaForge also found that commodity bull markets were much slower to pick up than dips in the stock and bond markets.

LaForge cautioned: “Commodity prices can fall swiftly, but it often takes years before excess supplies, built up during the bull years, are worked off… If that is not enough to scare investors away during commodity bear supercycles, maybe this one will – over the last decade, commodity prices have lost investors, on average, 6% per year.”

As always, the choice to invest depends on your portfolio, investment goals and attitude towards risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings. And you should never invest more than you can afford to lose. 

FAQs

Read more:

Rate this article

Ready to get started?

Capital.com Download

The difference between trading assets and CFDs
The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.

Capital Com is an execution-only service provider. The material provided on this website is for information purposes only and should not be understood as an investment advice. Any opinion that may be provided on this page does not constitute a recommendation by Capital Com or its agents. We do not make any representations or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the information that is provided on this page. If you rely on the information on this page then you do so entirely on your own risk.




Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Back to top button